本文摘要：Could Alibaba be Chinas next $100 billion stock market listing? The Hangzhou-based e-commerce giant continues to be coy over when it will take the plunge. But sooner or later founder Jack Ma will need to offer some kind of exit for his backers, not to mention employees, and an initial public offering is the most likely solution. Now is a good time to start asking how the company should be valued.阿里巴巴（Alibaba）能否沦为中国下一家千亿美元级别的上市公司？

Could Alibaba be Chinas next $100 billion stock market listing? The Hangzhou-based e-commerce giant continues to be coy over when it will take the plunge. But sooner or later founder Jack Ma will need to offer some kind of exit for his backers, not to mention employees, and an initial public offering is the most likely solution. Now is a good time to start asking how the company should be valued.阿里巴巴（Alibaba）能否沦为中国下一家千亿美元级别的上市公司？何时迈进这关键的一步？这家坐落于杭州的电子商务巨头对这个问题仍然含糊其辞。但公司创始人马云恐怕必须为投资者获取后路，更加不必托公司的员工了。因此，首次公开发表IPO将是最有可能的解决方案。

公司应当取得怎样的估值？目前应当是开始思维这个问题的时候了。Alibabas main business is selling. Its Tmall online stores provide a shop front for brands like Nike (NKE) and Unilever (UL), while Taobao is focused on consumer-to-consumer trade. The closest U.S. peers might be Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY). Sadly for valuation purposes, theres no perfect match: unlike Amazon, Alibaba doesnt hold inventory or manage warehouses, and unlike eBay, it gets most of its revenue from advertising, not charging users.阿里巴巴的主营业务是销售。它的在线商城天猫（Tmall）为耐克（Nike）和联合利华（Unilever）等品牌获取了一个网络店面，而淘宝则主要用作C2C交易。

和它尤为相似的同行应当是亚马逊（Amazon）和eBay。惜的是，在估值方面，并没一家与阿里巴巴极致给定的公司：与亚马逊有所不同，阿里巴巴未持有人库存或管理仓库；而与eBay有所不同，阿里巴巴公司的大多数收益都来自广告，而不是用户收费。Meanwhile, its range of services gets ever wider, and potentially harder to value. As well as accounting for the majority of Chinas e-commerce, a market worth $204 billion last year according to the China Internet Network Information Centre, Alibaba now has a mobile operating system, offers trade financing to vendors and may even start offering consumer loans. The companys chief strategist says it aims to be the worlds biggest data sharing platform.与此同时，它的业务范围却显得日益普遍，这也有可能使估值显得更为艰难。

阿里巴巴占有着中国电子商务市场的大部分份额。而据中国互联网信息中心（China Internet Network Information Centre）统计资料，去年中国电子商务市值为2,040亿美元。

如今，阿里巴巴有一个移动操作系统，为供应商获取贸易融资，甚至有可能开始获取消费贷款。公司首席策略师称之为，公司的目的是打造出“全球仅次于的数据共享平台”。Fortunately, there are two numbers that really matter. One is how much Alibaba can sell. The other is its take, or what percentage it gets from each transaction on its sites. That take might come through advertising or through transaction fees, or a mixture of both. But ultimately, it represents the cash the company can squeeze out of its sellers. Other services like lending may create revenue, but for now they are mainly ways to lock in users and maintain market share.好在有两个数据十分最重要。

一个是阿里巴巴能卖多少钱。另外一个则是公司的“提成”，即公司通过在它网站上已完成的每笔交易中提取的百分比。提成有可能通过广告或交易手续费的形式，也有可能综合两种方式。但最后，它代表了公司需要从卖家手中提取的现金。

其他服务，例如借贷等也有可能带给收益。但在目前，它们主要只是觅用户、保持市场份额的主要手段而已。

Consider a back-of-envelope valuation exercise. The first question is how big the overall market can get. Say e-commerce in China grows 35% a year for the next two years, and that Alibaba can keep its current market share of around 80%. That would give it just under $300 billion of transactions in 2014 - over four times what eBays marketplaces handled in 2012.我们来粗略估计一下它的市值。第一个问题是，总体市场需要显得多大。

假设未来两年，中国电子商务以35%的速度快速增长，而阿里巴巴仍需要维持目前大约80%的市场份额。这将使它在2014年取得价值相似3,000亿美元的交易——多达2012年eBay市场份额的四倍。In reality, many more factors will affect Alibabas magic number. Ma will need to time the stock market cycle, but also the tech cycle. With many foreign backers, Alibaba will most likely need to list on foreign markets, where stock buyers will be influenced by what they think of Chinas regulation, economy and accounting practices. Valuations for companies like Baidu, Renren and Sina show gyrations not always explained by the performance of their underlying businesses.现实情况下，不会有更加多因素影响阿里巴巴的市值。马云必需逃跑股市周期与技术周期的时机。

阿里巴巴有许多外国投资者，因此，它最有可能在海外市场上市。而在外国市场，股票投资者往往不会受到自身对中国的法规、经济与会计学实务观点的影响。百度（Baidu）、人人（Renren）和新浪（Sina）等公司的估值所展现出出有的摇摆不定一般来说很难用各公司基本业务的展现出来说明。

Valuations change quickly. Facebooks went from $50 billion in its fundraising at the end of 2010 to $104 billion at its IPO in 2012; the company now trades at just two-thirds that value. When Yahoo (YHOO) recently sold half its Alibaba stake back to the company, the deal valued the company at just $40 billion. But a bilateral negotiation by with a troubled U.S. company is very different than a stock market listing.估值变化迅速。2010年底，Facebook在融资时的估值为500亿美元，而在2012年IPO时则超过了1,040亿美元；但目前，它的股价仅有当初估值的三分之二。

最近，雅虎（Yahoo）将手头持有人的阿里巴巴股份中的一半出售给了阿里巴巴公司，交易对公司市值的确认是400亿美元。然而，与一家陷入困境的美国公司展开双边谈判跟上市比一起几乎是两码事。Besides, internet companies are inherently volatile. Super profitability attracts super competition, and disruptive technologies can take even established models by surprise. Netscape and Microsoft both showed how supposedly unassailable market positions can be lost as well as won. If a twelve-digit valuation is within reach, it makes sense for Alibaba to open the cave sooner rather than later.此外，互联网公司的性质要求了它内在的不稳定性。

极强的盈利能力也不会更有极强的竞争对手，而且颠覆性技术有可能在忽然之间就代替了至此成熟期的模式。当年的网景（Netscape）和微软公司（Microsoft）就充分证明，想象中不可动摇的市场地位有可能瞬间就不会易主。如果公司估值需要超过十二位数，上市就宜早于不应太迟。

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